A Nation in Transition
Germans More
Criminal, Less Literate, and
Older
Germany is not the country it once was. On
the positive side, Germans today are more
prosperous and have more free time than ever.
For some years now, the Bonn republic has led
the world in non-working time. But today's
Germans also differ from their grandparents and
great-grandparents in other, more ominous
ways.
The people that once prided themselves as a
nation of "thinkers and poets" is less able to
read and write. About four million German adults
are barely literate. A prominent specialist,
Gerd Kegel, has estimated that about 15 percent
of adults in western Germany (the former Bonn
republic) can "barely write their signature and
read simple headlines ... but are unable to read
detailed texts or fill out forms."
Crime has increased enormously in Germany
over the past several decades. In 1996 there
were about seven million (registered) crimes in
the German Federal Republic (with a population
of about 81 million), whereas in the entire
German Reich in 1938 (with a population of 67
million) there were 355,665. In short, Germany's
over-all crime rate has increased more than
ten-fold in 58 years. More specifically: there
were 3,928 cases of murder in 1996, but only 468
in 1938; 6,200 cases of rape in 1996, and 903 in
1938; and, 63,470 robberies in 1996, and 502 in
1938.
During just the past decade or so, even
visitors to Germany can see a noticeble increase
in graffiti, trash on the streets, general
slovenliness, and open drug dealing.
Most significantly for the long-term future,
Germans are slowly dying out. During the late
19th century, Germany's birth rate was one of
world's highest. In recent decades, though, it
has been one of the world's lowest. The
fertility rate in recent years has been about
1.4 live births per woman, which is below the
replacement level.
With deaths outnumbering births, demographers
estimate that in spite of continued net
immigration, Germany's total population -- now
some 82 million -- will decrease in the new
century. Even if the population was to remain
constant, Germany's relative position in the
world would continue to decline, given the
higher birth rates in most other countries.
Germany is also less "German." According to
the most recent official statistics, 7.37
million foreigners and 300,000 asylum seekers
live in the country, of whom more than two
million are from Turkey. Foreigners now make up
nine percent of the total population. These
figures do not include illegal aliens, of whom
there were an estimated 1.8 million in 1997.
Foreigners tend to be concentrated in the
larger cities. In Frankfurt am Main, non-Germans
already make up 29 percent of the population. In
Stuttgart the figure is 24 percent, and in
Munich it is 23 percent. The percentage of
foreigners is especially high among the youth.
In Munich, for example, 34 percent of those
under 18 years of age are foreigners. In the
largest city, Berlin, the percentage of
foreigners under 18 years old is estimated to
grow to 52 percent by the year 2015.
Writing in the semi-official weekly Das
Parlament (issue 43-44, 1998), population
specialist Prof. Herwig Birg of Bielefeld summed
up:
Of all the major industrial
countries, Germany has become the most
important land of immigration. The number of
immigrants per 100,000 of population is
several times higher than in the "classic"
immigration countries of the United States,
Canada and Australia. The German population
has a high birth rate deficit, while the
birth rate of foreigners [in Germany]
has a high surplus. Germany can no longer
choose whether it wishes to be an immigration
country or not, because the birth deficit
will greatly increase due to the dramatically
falling numbers of women in their
child-bearing years. German society finds
itself in a demographically determined
existential change, that is, in transition,
against its will, toward an immigration
society that ignores, suppresses and
tabooizes its future demographic problems at
the cost of the young generations.
(Sources: R. Wuttke, "Deutsche schaufeln sich
das Grab," Nation u. Europa, Coburg, January
1999, pp. 20-22, and, "Ausländer unter
uns," p. 27; Deutschland in Geschichte und
Gegenwart, Tübingen, Dec. 1996, citing:
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Sept. 20, 1996;
Stuttgarter Nachrichten, April 18, 1996;
Südwest Presse, June 14, 1996; Nation u.
Europa, Coburg, March 1997, p. 36
[criminality figures].)
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